Oil Ends Week Lower

Crude Oil Futures Show Mixed Performance Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty

Crude oil futures saw a slight increase on the day, but the week ended with a loss. Over the course of the week, crude oil prices dropped by 1% to $62.89 per barrel. The Rig Count Report from Baker Hughes indicated a small decrease in U.S. oil rigs, although this was counterbalanced by an increase in gas rigs. According to Robert Yawger from Mizuho Securities USA, news about OPEC+ planning to increase oil output and headlines regarding U.S. military operations against Iran influenced the market. Brent crude prices rose 0.3% for the day, reaching $67.75 per barrel, but the weekly decline stood at 0.4%.

Market Sentiment Shifts as Geopolitical Risks Loom

Oil futures are currently lower as traders assess the potential for U.S. action in Iran. While additional talks are expected in the coming weeks, reports of a second U.S. aircraft carrier heading to the Middle East keep the possibility of military action in the spotlight. Meanwhile, ongoing Russia-Ukraine peace talks are helping to temper risk. Dennis Kissler from BOK Financial noted that near-term global crude supplies remain abundant, and crude futures are likely carrying a $5 to $7 per barrel geopolitical premium. He added that negotiations with Iran and Russia will be key market drivers. WTI is down 0.6% at $62.47 per barrel, while Brent is off 0.4% at $67.25.

Weekly Losses Expected as Supply Outlook Improves

Oil prices are heading for weekly losses due to expectations of rising global supply and reduced fears of disruptions in the Middle East. Although Brent crude and WTI each increased by 0.2% to $67.67 and $62.33 per barrel respectively, both benchmarks are still projected to post weekly losses of over 0.5%. The International Energy Agency has lowered its forecast for oil-demand growth this year and anticipates a rebound in supply following January’s losses caused by a U.S. winter storm. Additionally, comments from U.S. President Trump about securing a nuclear agreement with Iran have helped ease concerns about potential U.S. military involvement, which could disrupt oil supplies.

Technical Analysis Suggests Fading Momentum in WTI Futures

Technical analysis suggests that the upside momentum in WTI crude oil futures is beginning to fade, according to Matt Simpson from StoneX. A lower high formed on Wednesday, accompanied by a shooting star candlestick pattern, followed by a bearish daily close beneath trend support on Thursday. Simpson noted that a three-wave correction may be underway against the futures’ rally from $54.70 per barrel. There is a cluster of prior highs around $62.88 per barrel, which could serve as near-term support. However, a sustained break below $62 per barrel would expose the $60 per barrel level. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are currently 0.1% higher at $62.88 per barrel.

Oil Consolidates Amid Middle East Tensions and Weaker Demand Outlook

Oil prices are consolidating during early Asian trade, with Middle East tensions remaining a focus of attention. However, their impact on oil prices has been limited, according to Antonio Di Giacomo from XS.com. Despite tensions between the U.S. and Iran and mixed signals from recent diplomatic communications, the market has shown greater sensitivity to fundamental supply-and-demand factors. Di Giacomo noted a deterioration in crude consumption prospects for 2026, citing forecasts that point to more moderate demand growth. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are little changed at $62.85 per barrel, while front-month Brent crude oil futures are steady at $67.53 per barrel.